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Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin politik süreçlerinin kapsayıcılığının ekonomi üzerine etkileri ele alınmaktadır. Ekonometrik metodolojiye göre politik süreçlere ilişkin kalite ve ekonomik performansa ilişkin yapılacak birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testi bize bu konuda bilgi sağlayacaktır. Kurumsal yapının ortaya çıkardığı politik riskler eğer durağan değilse, politik riskler artıyor ve bunun ortaya çıkardığı ekonomik etkiler olumsuz ise kurumlar dışlayıcı olmaya başlamıştır. Analiz için Türkiye’nin 2002-2019 dönemdeki çeyreklik politik risk ve GSYİH verileri kullanılmıştır. RALS-ADF ve RALS-EG testlerinden elde edilen bulgulara göre PRR ve GSYİH değişkenleri durağan değildir ve bu değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Buna göre 2005’lerde yakalanan yüksek politik kapsayıcılıktan uzaklaşılsa da bunun milli gelir üzerinde dışlayıcı etkisi olmamıştır.
In this study, the effects of inclusiveity of Turkey's political processes on the economy are discussed. According to econometric methodology, the unit root and cointegration test will provide us with information on this subject. If the political risks arising from the institutional structure are not stable, and the economic effects caused by this are negative, the institutions become exclusionary. For the analysis, Turkey's quarterly political risk and GDP data for the period 2002-2019 were used. According to the results obtained from the Rals-ADF and RALS-EG tests, the PRR and GDP variables are not stationary, and there is no long-term co-integration relationship between these variables. Accordingly, even if the high political inclusion that was achieved in 2005 was moved away, this did not have an exclusionary effect on national income.
In this study, the effects of inclusivity of Turkey's political processes on the economy are discussed. According to econometric methodology, the unit root and cointegration test will provide us with information on this subject. If the political risks arising from the institutional structure are not stable, and the economic effects caused by this are negative, the institutions become exclusionary. For the analysis, Turkey's quarterly political risk and GDP data for the period 2002-2019 were used. According to the results obtained from the Rals-ADF and RALS-EG tests, the PRR and GDP variables are not stationary, and there is no long-term co-integration relationship between these variables. Accordingly, even if the high political inclusiveness that was achieved in 2005 was moved away, this did not have an exclusionary effect on national income.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Ulusal
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