Abstract:

Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide information to assess the effects of environmental and climatic conditions on species distribution. The purpose of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on a critically endangered species, Campanula yaltirikii H.Duman. It is a local endemic chasmophyte from Mt Çığlıkara (Antalya, Turkey), restricted to cracks in calcareous rocks and threatened by goat overgrazing. Current and future ENMs of C. yaltirikii were predicted with a maximum entropy (Maxent) algorithm. The MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) climate change scenario for the year 2070 was used for projecting the future ENM of the species. A total of 38 GPS records of the species? localities were obtained from fieldwork. Fifteen environmental variables, including edaphic and topographic factors, and 19 climatic variables were used as predictors. The jackknife evaluation results indicated that geological formation, soil groups, and elevation are the main factors influencing C. yaltirikii?s distribution for current and future models. To conclude, climate change will shift some parts of the suitable habitats of C. yaltirikii. While there will be an expansion to higher altitudes and further north, there also will be habitat loss in the northeast of the current suitable habitat.

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