Özet:

The yield curve that compares the returns of financial instruments with different maturities, or the difference in return equal to the slope of the curve, is often considered an important predictor of future economic performance. This study examines the relationship between the recession of industrial production and yield spread in Turkey during the period 2006-2020. It contributes to the literature because of the two reasons: The period of investigation is in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in Turkey, and on the long-term side it uses the return on five-year government bonds. According to the estimation results made by the Probit method, it proposes a positive relationship between the yield spread and the recessions in industrial production. Rising the spread increases the probability of recession, in other words, it negatively affects industrial production. It can be argued that there is a positive relationship between spread and the possibility of a recession in industrial production on Turkey, so this link caused by an inverted yield curve. inverted yield curve causes a negative-positive relationship. As a result, controlling the market structure while investigating the effect of the term structure of the yield curve in Turkey is very important.

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