Abstract:

The aim of this study is to determine the sudden stops (SS) periods in equity and debt flows for Turkey and to investigate the effects of global and local variables on the occurrence of SS periods. The study addresses monthly data for the January 2010-December 2021 period. The study explains the SS periods that occur in equity and debt flows using the probit model and data based on global and local variables. The analysis is the first study in Turkey to examine this subject with quantitative techniques. According to the study results, SS periods were determined in three different periods with regard to equity flows and in two different periods with regard to debt flows. In addition, global variables generally affect equity and debt flows; however, the success of the models regarding the formation of SS periods increases once local variables are included in the analysis. As a result, the performed analyses have determined local variables to have a greater effect in the Turkish sample.

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