Özet:

Although our country is not frequently found with harmful species that cause economic damage or epidemic in the cave forests, it has been observed that in the Calliteara pudding (Linneaus, 1758) in 2018 and 2019 cave forests caused significant damage by epidemic in the cave forests in Inegöl (Bursa). As a result of the larva's eating the sheets of the cave, the trees remain completely unleashed and the increase is lost. Although this species is mainly known as a cranberry harmful, it is nutritious as a polifag in leafed forest trees. In the study, the future projection was modeled using the program MaxEnt 3.4.1 based on the current spread areas of the Calliteara pudibunda in Europe and Turkey and the scenarios developed depending on climate change. The CCSM4 (The Community Climate System Model) 2050 and 2070 RCP (Representive Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios used 19 bioclimate variables. The damage is noted that the current potential spread area of the Black Sea area is largely covered with the areas where the rock is spread, primarily. Furthermore, according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, when the species’ spread areas model is studied in the 2050-2070 projections, it appears that the future projections of the species also appear as a threat to the native forests. As of today, it is estimated that the current and future potential areas of Calliteara pudibunda, which is harmful in the curvature forests in a limited area in the Inegöl-Tahtaköprü location, may be increasingly increasing.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Özet:

Although it is not frequently encountered with pest species that cause economic damage or epidemic in beech forests of our country, it was observed that Calliteara pudibunda (Linneaus, 1758) caused major epidemic in Inegöl (Bursa) beech forests in 2018 and 2019. As result of feeding by larvae, trees may become completely leafless and loss of increment occurs. This species is mainly known as beech pest, but is fed as a polyphag on decidous forest tree species. In this study, future projection of Calliteara pudibunda was modeled by using MaxEnt 3.4.1 program based on scenarios developed depending on current distribution areas and climate change in Turkey. In the modeling, 19 bioclimatic variables were created using CCSM4 (The Community Climate System Model) 2050 and 2070 RCP (Representive Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. It is observed that the present potential distribution area of the pest coincides largely with the areas where the beech is spread, especially in the Black Sea region. It is seen that the pest appears to be a threat for Turkish forests in 2050 and 2070 projections according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is estimated that the present and future potential areas of Calliteara pudibunda, which are harmful to beech forests in a limited area in İnegöl-Tahtaköprü locality for today, may increase gradually.