Özet:

Today, the challenges of modern urban life and environmental and social problems have led to a futuristic approach to urban planning and the use of various tools to build a desirable future. The present study uses the technique of cross-impact analysis, which is one of the common methods in futures research, and using Mick Mac software, has analyzed the components of urban development in the metropolis of Ahvaz. Then, 37 components were extracted as indicators of urban development using the Delphi method. The results indicate that six categories (influential factors, risk factors, purpose, influential factors, and independent factors, regulators) can be identified in the scatter page. Finally, among the 37 key factors, after examining the impact of these factors on each other and the future situation of the metropolis of Ahvaz by direct and indirect methods, 13 effective and key drivers were identified, including; (Population, equitable distribution of urban services, development of tourism industry, organization of special tourism axes, organization of suburban areas, control of air pollution and promotion of environmental health, expansion of public open space and creation of leisure centers, providing the appropriate level of economic growth, improving quality of life in dilapidated urban fabric, organization, and improvement of worn-out fabric, expansion of small and high-yield workshops, empowerment of non-governmental organizations, development of recreation and tourism centers) which have the most role in the future state of urban development in Ahvaz, were selected as factors and drivers Affecting the urban development of Ahvaz. The results further show that the factors of "development of the tourism industry, organizing the suburbs" are at risk. Population factors, fair distribution of urban services, development of the tourism industry, will have the greatest impact on the urban development process of Ahvaz metropolis.

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