Abstract:

The aim of this study is to determine the causal relationship between red meat prices and fattening feed prices in Turkey. The research material consists of 180 months of data on red meat prices and fattening feed prices between January 2008 and December 2022. During the period analyzed, it was determined that prices increased in current terms and when real prices considering that feed prices increased more than red meat prices, especially in the last two years. Toda-Yamamoto Test is used to determine the causal relationship between red meat prices and fattening feed prices. For this purpose, firstly, ADF and PP unit root tests of the series were performed and detected the series contain unit root, but there is no unit root in their first differences. The lag length of the series was set as 3 months and detected there was no variance and autocorrelation. According to the results of the study, a causality relationship was found between fattening feed prices and red meat prices at 1% significance level. However, no significant relationship was found from red meat prices to fattening feed prices. It can be said that the increase in red meat prices is a function of the increase in feed prices. In this case, it can be stated that measures that can be taken to increase feed production and reduce import dependency should be increased in terms of price stability.