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Abstract The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of causal factors relationship over the changes in future scenario management under the sustainability policy of Thailand by creating a model with validity called “Partial Least Square Path Modeling based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Observed Variables (PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx). The results showed that the three latent variables (economic, social, and environmental) were found to be causal related. From the PLS Path Modeling-ARIMAx (1,1,1), it is characterized as the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) with highest performance, where mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) equals to 1.55%, and root mean square error (RMSE) equals to 1.97% upon comparing them to other models. If the government implements this model to define a new scenario policy by stipulating future total energy consumption (2020-2039) below the national carrying capacity, with minimal error correction mechanism and great impact on model relationship, the future CO2 emission (2020-2039) is expected to drop a growth rate continuously. When a new scenario policy is determined, CO2 emission was found to increase at a growth rate of only 8.95% (2020/2039) or by 78.99 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039) going below carrying capacity set off at 90.05 Mt CO2 Eq. (from 2020-2039). The result is clearly different in the absence of the new scenario policy. Downloads Download data is not yet available. Downloads FULL TEXT Published 2022-09-27 How to Cite Sutthichaimethee, P., & Jittawiriyanukoon, C. (2022). The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(5), 36–46. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11643 More Citation Formats ACM ACS APA ABNT Chicago Harvard IEEE MLA Turabian Vancouver Download Citation Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS) BibTeX Issue Vol. 12 No. 5 (2022) Section Articles License Submission of an article implies that the work described has not been published previously , that it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, that its publication is approved by all authors and tacitly or explicitly by the responsible authorities where the work was carried out, and that, if accepted, will not be published elsewhere in the same form, without the written consent of the Publisher. The Editors reserve the right to edit or otherwise alter all contributions, but authors will receive proofs for approval before publication. Most read articles by the same author(s) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Harlida Abdul Wahab, A Forecasting Model in Managing Future Scenarios to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of Thailand's Environmental Law: Enriching the Path Analysis-VARIMA-OVi Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 11 No. 4 (2021) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, Apinyar Chatchorfa, Boonton Dockthaisong, Sthianrapab Naluang, Sirapatsorn Wongthongdee, Nachatchaya Thongjan, Indicators of Environmental and Economic Problems Priority Arising from Energy Use in Food Manufacturing Sector in Realizing Sustainable Development Policy under Thai Environmental Law Framework , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 11 No. 5 (2021) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon, Analyzing the Impact of Causal Factors on Political Management to Determine Sustainability Policy under Environmental Law: Enriching the Covariance-based SEMxi Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 12 No. 4 (2022) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, The Management Efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy under Thailand's Energy Law: Enriching the SEM-based on the ARIMAXi model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 11 No. 5 (2021) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Jindamas Sutthichaimethee, Chittinan Vutikorn, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, Sirapatsorn Wongthongdee, Srochinee Siriwattana, Apinyar Chatchorfa, Borworn Khomchunsri, Guidelines for Increasing the Effectiveness of Thailand’s Sustainable Development Policy based on Energy Consumption: Enriching the Path-GARCH Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 13 No. 1 (2023) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, A Forecasting Model on Carrying Capacity for Government's Controlling Measure under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting Non-Recursive Autoregression based on the Var-X Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 10 No. 6 (2020) Make a Submission Make a Submission Dergi Kapağı

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