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Abstract The objective of this study is to develop a model for forecasting energy consumption and to increase the effectiveness of Thailand's sustainable development policy based on energy consumption by using the best model, the Path Analysis-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model (Path-GARCH model). To improve the effectiveness of sustainability policies, the researcher has envisioned the final energy consumption over a 20-year period (AD 2023–2022) by defining a new scenario policy. Comparing the performance of the Path-GARCH model to other previous models, the Path-GARCH model was found to have the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) values. In addition, the study found that energy consumption continued to rise to 125,055 ktoe by 2042, with a growth rate of 115.05% between 2042 and 2023, which exceeded the carrying capacity limit of 90,000 ktoe. When a new scenario policy is implemented, however, the final energy consumption continues to rise to 74,091 ktoe (2042). Consequently, defining a new scenario policy is a crucial development guideline for enhancing the effectiveness of Thailand's sustainable development policy. Downloads Download data is not yet available. Downloads FULL TEXT Published 2023-01-22 How to Cite Sutthichaimethee, P., Sutthichaimethee, J., Vutikorn, C., Ariyasajjakorn, D., Wongthongdee, S., Siriwattana, S., Chatchorfa, A., & Khomchunsri, B. (2023). Guidelines for Increasing the Effectiveness of Thailand’s Sustainable Development Policy based on Energy Consumption: Enriching the Path-GARCH Model. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 13(1), 67–74. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13793 More Citation Formats ACM ACS APA ABNT Chicago Harvard IEEE MLA Turabian Vancouver Download Citation Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS) BibTeX Issue Vol. 13 No. 1 (2023) Section Articles License Submission of an article implies that the work described has not been published previously , that it is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, that its publication is approved by all authors and tacitly or explicitly by the responsible authorities where the work was carried out, and that, if accepted, will not be published elsewhere in the same form, without the written consent of the Publisher. The Editors reserve the right to edit or otherwise alter all contributions, but authors will receive proofs for approval before publication. Most read articles by the same author(s) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Harlida Abdul Wahab, A Forecasting Model in Managing Future Scenarios to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of Thailand's Environmental Law: Enriching the Path Analysis-VARIMA-OVi Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 11 No. 4 (2021) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, Apinyar Chatchorfa, Boonton Dockthaisong, Sthianrapab Naluang, Sirapatsorn Wongthongdee, Nachatchaya Thongjan, Indicators of Environmental and Economic Problems Priority Arising from Energy Use in Food Manufacturing Sector in Realizing Sustainable Development Policy under Thai Environmental Law Framework , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 11 No. 5 (2021) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon, Analyzing the Impact of Causal Factors on Political Management to Determine Sustainability Policy under Environmental Law: Enriching the Covariance-based SEMxi Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 12 No. 4 (2022) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Chanintorn Jittawiriyanukoon, The Impact of Causal Factors Relationship over the Changes in Future Scenario Management under the Sustainability Policy of Thailand , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 12 No. 5 (2022) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, The Management Efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy under Thailand's Energy Law: Enriching the SEM-based on the ARIMAXi model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 11 No. 5 (2021) Pruethsan Sutthichaimethee, Danupon Ariyasajjakorn, A Forecasting Model on Carrying Capacity for Government's Controlling Measure under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting Non-Recursive Autoregression based on the Var-X Model , International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy: Vol. 10 No. 6 (2020) Make a Submission Make a Submission Dergi Kapağı

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