Abstract:

Agriculture drought is among the most dangerous natural disasters that can have serious impacts on the economy and environmental systems, primarily living life. Compared to other disasters, drought has many differences with its structure and reputation. In addition to the serious consequences of agricultural drought, it also leads to large costs. According to the 2014 IPCC report, the temperature in the Turkish scenario is expected to rise in the future, and the rainfall is expected to decrease. If this is taken into account, it is predicted that the duration and severity of the possible drought disasters that occur throughout our country will increase. In the future, the determination of agricultural droughts is likely to affect all other areas of production in addition to sustainable agricultural production. In this study, the HADGEM2 global climate model applied the Standardized Rain Index (SPI) to the monthly rains series predicted by 2100 in the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) and the Puzzler (RCP 8.5) of the HADGEM2 global climate model. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, four common agricultural drought periods (2043-2044, 2046-2047, 2086-2087 and 2090-2091) were determined. According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, four common agricultural drought periods (2060 - 2062, 2072 - 2074, 2092-2094 and 2095-2097) were also identified. The distribution of violence in the basin of the specified agricultural dry periods is shown by maps of the distribution of violence in the basin.  The necessary measures should be taken to prevent the water gap that will occur in the possible agricultural dry periods in the Konya Closed Pool. In addition, the preparation of water management plans should minimize losses in agricultural production. The measures to be taken to reduce the effects of drought will directly contribute to the region’s producer and will also make a significant contribution to the country’s production and economy.

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