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Hisse senedi fiyatlarının hangi faktörlerden etkilendiği konusu hem kurumsal hem de bireysel yatırımcılar açısından her zaman en önemli konulardan olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’deki hisse fiyatları ile altın fiyatları, faiz oranları, işsizlik oranları ve para arzı arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin analiz edilmesidir. Bunun için 2009:01-2019:01 dönemleri arasındaki aylık BIST100 endeks değerleri ile altın, faiz, işsizlik ve para arzı makroekonomik faktörlerinin değerleri analize dâhil edilmiştir. Hisse senetleri, altın, faiz, işsizlik ve para arzı arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığı ARDL sınır testi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları hisse senediyle altın, faiz, işsizlik ve para arzı değişkenleri arasında bir eşbütünleşme olduğunu göstermiştir. Buna göre hisse fiyatları ile faiz oranları ve para arzı arasında uzun ve kısa vadeli anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bu ilişkide faiz oranları hisse senedi fiyatlarını negatif, para arzı ise pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Altın fiyatları ve işsizlik oranı ile hisse fiyatları arasında herhangi bir anlamlı ilişki bulunamamıştır.
The issue of what factors influence stock prices has always been one of the most important issues for both corporate and individual investors. The main objective of this study is to analyze the matching relationship between stock prices in Turkey and gold prices, interest rates, unemployment rates and money supply. For this, the monthly BIST100 index values between 2009:01-2019:01 periods and the values of gold, interest, unemployment and money supply macroeconomic factors were included in the analysis. The ARDL border test was used to investigate whether there is an integration relationship between stock, gold, interest, unemployment and money supply. The results of the analysis showed that there was an aggregation between the stock and gold, interest, unemployment and money supply variables. There has been a long-term and short-term meaningful relationship between stock prices and interest rates and money supply. In this relationship, interest rates have a negative impact on stock prices, while money supply has a positive impact. There was no meaningful relationship between gold prices and unemployment rates and stock prices.
The issue of which factors affect share prices has always been one of the most important topics for both corporate and individual investors. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the cointegration relationship between stock price and gold price, interest rates, unemployment rate and money supply in Turkey. For this, monthly BIST100 index values and the macroeconomic factors values of gold, interest, unemployment, and money supply between 2009:01-2019:12 period are included in the analysis. Whether there is a cointegration relationship between share, gold, interest rate and money supply were investigated using the ARDL boundary test. Analysis results showed that there is a cointegration between stock prices and the variables of gold, interest, unemployment, and money supply. Accordingly, a significant relationship was found between stock prices and interest rates and money supply in the short and long term. In this relationship, while stock prices were negatively affected by interest rates, they were positively affected by the money supply. No significant relationship was found between gold prices, unemployment rate and share prices.
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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