Abstract:

In this study in Turkey in the period 1960-2017 the impact of commercial outdoors on economic growth was studied by means of multi-structually broken time series analysis methods. In addition, the stock of capital and labour are also included in the analysis as a control variable. The stagnation degree of the series was studied by the multi-structually broken unit root test Kapetanios (2005) and it was determined that at the level of the commercial outdoors series, the other series were stagnated when the first differences were taken. The Maki (2012) multi-structually fragmented integration test has been examined and it has been revealed that the series are integrated, that is, they are moving together over a long period of time. In this test, the structural breakdowns dates determined by the Maki (2012) method were included in the analysis with doll variables. Regression analyses conducted by the DOLS method have found that trade outward transparency has reduced national income in the short term and increased in the long term. Causability tests, according to the results, are in the long term, while there is no causal relationship in the short term to the real national income that falls from commercial outdoors per person. The capital stock and the labour force falling per person to the real national income in the short period and in the long period are also related to causal relationships.