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Enflasyon ve faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki birçok çalışmanın konusunu oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmalarda çoğunlukla Fisher Hipotezi üzerinedir. Fisher Hipotezi, reel faiz oranlarının uzun dönemde değişmeyeceği varsayımında, nominal faiz ile beklenen enflasyon oranının uzun dönemli ilişkili olacağını ileri sürmektedir. Çalışmada, Mortgage krizi öncesi ve sonrasında enflasyon ve işsizlik arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ve Fisher Hipotezinin geçerliliği araştırılmıştır. Haziran 2000 – Eylül 2007 ve Ekim 2007 – Ekim 2018 arası aylık veriler Augmented Dickey Fuller Birim Kök, Johansen Eşbütünleşme, ve Granger Nedensellik Testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre Mortgage Krizi öncesi, sonrası ve 2000-2018 arasında Fisher Hipotezi geçerlidir. Ancak Mortgage krizi öncesi değişkenler arasında var olan çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi kriz sonrasında kaybolmuştur. 2000-2018 dönemi arasında ise faiz oranlarından enflasyona doğru nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.
The relationship between inflation and interest rates forms the subject of many studies. These studies are mostly on the Fisher hypothesis. The Fisher Hypothesis assumes that the real interest rates will not change in the long term, and that the expected inflation rate with the nominal interest will be associated in the long term. The study examined the causal relationship between inflation and unemployment before and after mortgage crisis and the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis. Monthly data between June 2000 - September 2007 and October 2007 - October 2018 were analyzed with Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root, Johansen Integration, and Granger Causal Test. According to the results of the study; Mortgage Crisis is applicable before, after and between 2000-2018. However, the dual causal relationship that existed between the variables before the Mortgage crisis has disappeared after the crisis. Between 2000-2018, the causal relationship between the interest rates and inflation has been identified.
The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the subject of many studies. These studies are mostly about the Fisher Hypothesis. The Fisher hypothesis suggests that the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate will be in a long-run relationship under the assumption that real interest rates will not change. In this study, the causality relationship between inflation and unemployment and the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis were investigated before and after the mortgage crisis. June 2000 - September 2007 and October 2007 - October 2018 Monthly data were analyzed by Augmented Dickey Fuller Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. According to the results of the study; The Fisher Hypothesis is valid before, after the crisis and during June 2000 – October 2018. However, the two-way causality relationship between the variables before the mortgage crisis was lost after the crisis. The causality relationship from interest rates to inflation was determined between June 2000 – October 2018.
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