Abstract:

Search transactions balance is one of the important indicators that provide information about the economic performance of a country. An unbalanced cash transactions account is an unwanted situation for the economies. There are numerous studies on the lack of economic processes, which is one of the most important problems for developing economies such as Turkey and Turkey. Turkey has been among the countries that have been fighting for long years. This study, based on data from the period 1987:Q1 and 2012:Q4 in Turkey, focused on the determination of the asymmetric behavior of the gap of car processes using the regime change model. In this context, the data set is obtained from the database of the Turkish Statistical Bureau and is cleansed from seasonality according to the Seri Tramo-Seats method. As an analysis method in the study, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979, 1981 ADF) unit root test and conjuncture waves were analyzed by Hamilton (1989) and Krolzig (1997,1998) for the purpose of using the Markov regime change model. According to the findings obtained from the practiced empirical tests, in Turkey, in the balance of trade transactions, economic crisis periods occurred in the years 1994, 2001 and 2008-2009. The slowdown in economic growth in the years in which the reduction regime was seen and the import-dependent structure of exports decreased. In the last few years, Turkey has been in an expansion regime. In the period of expansion of the balance of search transactions, the increase in economic activities causes the formation of high-carrier transactions.

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