Özet: Doğalgaz temini noktasında tamamen dışa bağımlı bir politika izleyen ve doğalgaz stok kapasitesi toplam tüketiminin ancak %5 ini karşılayan ülkemiz için tüketilen doğalgaz miktarının tahmini, son derece önemlidir. Talebin doğru bir şekilde tahmini, sektöre yapılacak yatırımları ve gaz alımı ile ilgili anlaşmaları, dolayısıyla sektörün gelişimini etkileyecek unsurlardan birini oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, yapay sinir ağları ve klasik zaman serileri (ARIMA modelleri) yardımıyla doğalgaz tüketimine ilişkin kısa dönemli öngörüde bulunmaktır. Ayrıca çalışmamızda her iki model ile elde edilen tahmin değerleriyle gözlenen değerler karşılaştırılarak modellerin performansı kıyaslanmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Yapay Sinir Ağları, MLP, ARIMA Abstract: It is crucial to predict the natural gas consumption for our country that follow a foreign dependent policy to yield natural gas and whose storage capacity of natural gas is %5 of total consumption. Robust prediction of natural gas demand is one of the factors that affects sector-specific investments and agreements about buying gas and so development of natural gas sector. The object of this study is to prophesy the short-term natural gas consumption by the aid of artificial neural network and classical time series (ARIMA models). In this paper also, models’ performances are analysed through the predicted and observed values obtained from both models, are compared. Keywords: Artifical Neural Networks, MLP, ARIMA
the estimated of the amount of natural gas consumed for our country, which is completely externally dependent on the natural gas supply point, and the total consumption of natural gas stock capacity, but 5 ini meets the estimated natural gas consumed for our country, is extremely important to the demand accurately predict the investments and gas intake related to the investment of the sector, therefore, the aim of working one of the factors that will affect the development of the sector is to predict the natural nerve networks and classic time series with the help of bees totaling models of natural gas consumption, compared to the performance of models compared with the values obtained by both models in our study, the natural gas supply of the natural gas, which is important objective of the naturalization of the natural gas consumption of the natural gas, which is to obtaining properties of the natural gas, which is to obtaining properties of the natural gas supply of the natural gas, which is to obtaining properties of the natural aid of the natural aid of the natural aid of the natural aid of the natural gas consumption of the natural gas, which is to obtaining properties of the development of the natural gas consumption of the natural aid of the natural aid of the development of the natural aid of the natural gas, which is to the
Field : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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