Abstract:

In the past thirty years, as the Turkish economy has opened to the outside, the role of the Turkish automotive sector in foreign trade has also increased. After the 2008 global financial crisis, Turkey’s foreign trade has increased both as a partner country and volume. In this context, it has gained importance to analyze Turkey’s automotive external trade determiners. In fact, the purpose of the study is to analyze the determinants of the foreign trade of the automotive of Turkey in the panel drawing model framework. In this context, the exports, imports and foreign trade of Turkey have been estimated in three separate equations. The analysis was implemented for the countries in the top 20 of Turkey's automotive foreign trade in the period 2009-2017. The findings of the three equality are different. GDP per person, population, distance and exchange rates are the most important indicators of automotive exports of Turkey. There was no statistically meaningful relationship between the membership in the customs union and the exchange of representatives and the automobile export. For the automotive foreign trade model of Turkey, other variables, except GDP per person, have given statistically meaningful results. The variable in production capacity is not statistically meaningful for both export and foreign trade equality. For the determiners of the automotive import function, the GDP per person, population, distance, customs unity, production capacity and the entire currency rate, which are the indicative variables included in the analysis, are statistically meaningful. However, the distance shift, contrary to expectations, has a positive impact on Turkey’s automotive imports.

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