Özet:

Starting with the supply-and-demand analysis in the background of global water shortage, considering various influence factors from natural environment and society. By using the supply and demand balance theory dynamically. We construct the model of water resources supply and demand index to measure the ability of clean water supply in different regions. And take Qingdao as an example to verify the general principles of our model. Calculated that the balance index of water supply and demand is 0.48 while Qingdao’s value is 0.69, which means Qingdao’s water resources situation is very grimmer. In order to finding and solving problems, we designed an intervention plan to alleviate the water shortage and drew the conclusion that the intervention of rainwater collection technology every 1% increase will make the total increase in the supply of 0.0936 units. Besides, we made a qualitative analysis of the possible impacts of the intervention through forecast the water resources in the next 25 years, and found that there are two balance point of supply and demand system, water shortage situation eased, and there will be sufficient water supply to match demand by 2035. Key Words: Water Scarcity, Balance Model of Supply and Demand, Price Index, Intervention Plan.

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