Abstract:

External debts, especially after the Second World War, have become a source of income for the purposes of economic growth in terms of underdeveloped and developing countries. Countries with insufficient savings and insufficient capital accumulation, such as Turkey, generally not able to use external debt as efficient and to increase the production power of the economy. For countries trying to close their fiscal deficits, external debt has led to the unsustainable rise in debt over time. External debt, which is generally negative effects on economic growth according to the literature, is important nowadays when sustainability of principal and interest payments and not efficient of external debt. This study investigates whether Turkey's external debt sustainable. The main objective of the study was to analyze the structure of external debt and to determine whether external debt is sustainable by way of forecasting. For this, 1990-2016 annual data was used and graphs, tables and an econometric method ARIMA model were used as an analysis tool. In the study, the "External Debt Stock", "GDP" and "Export" values for the years 2017-2025 were estimated with ARIMA model. As a result, according to this study in Turkey external debt is sustainable. But it is also clear that external debt management should be cautious because of the threshold level. On the other hand, the external debt issue should be evaluated not only in terms of the current financial balances of an individual country but also in terms of the economic burden of future generations.

Keywords: