Özet:

Unemployment rates are an issue that concerns all segments of the society, but an increase in this rate causes various problems (such as low growth and income distribution injustice) through both supply and demand channels. Therefore, it is very important to study unemployment rates, analyze and model changes in series. The natural unemployment rate indicates the long-term unemployment rate in the economy.There are two basic preliminary arguments for returning rising unemployment to the natural unemployment rate. The first argument is the hysteris hypothesis, which argues that unemployment rates cannot return to their former natural rate by rising after a crisis in the economy. The econometric meaning of this process is that the level of the unemployment rate contains a root unit. The second argument is the Natural Rate Hypothesis, which argues that unemployment will return to the same level called the natural rate after the shocks in the economy. The econometric meaning of this process is that the unemployment rate contains a stationarity process at the level. In the study, it was examined whether the natural rate hypothesis, or the unemployment hysteresis approach is valid in the BRICS-T country group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey). As an econometric method, the panel LM unit root test was used, based on the Fourier approach, “which takes into account cross-section dependence and structural fractures”. The findings show that the unemployment hysteresis approach is valid in the BRICS-T country group.

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