Özet:

This study examined the relationship between the consumer trust index and the currency rate in Turkey. For this purpose, the study used monthly data for the period 2004: 01 to 2020: 05 . According to the Fourier ADF unit root test, both the consumer confidence index and the exchange rate series are not stable in the level values. The relationship between the two variables was studied by the Fourier ADL integration test and a long-term relationship between the consumer confidence index and the exchange rate was found. FMOLS, CCR and DOLS methods have been used to predict long-term indicators. There has been a negative relationship between the consumer confidence index and the exchange rate. According to the results of the three methods, a 1% increase in the exchange rate reduces the consumer confidence index by about 0.17%. The long-term ratio for both three methods has been statistically meaningful. According to the causality test results between the consumer trust index and the exchange rate series, one-way causality from the exchange rate to the consumer trust index has been identified.

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