Özet:

Turkey has managed to achieve a strong growth performance after the 2008-09 Global Crisis, after the crisis, it started to erode by exhibiting an extremely unstable growth performance especially in the second half of the 2010s. The macroeconomic balances/datas began to deteriorate when the political crises/uncertainties in the country were added to the worsening with the global conjuncture of US Federal Reserve's announcement that it would raise interest rates. As a matter of fact, Turkey's CDS premiums increased significantly with the emergence of a new conjuncture in which the exchange rate increase accelerated and growth slowed down with the foreign exchange crisis in August 2018. The increase in CDS premiums, which is an indicator that measures the risks of countries/companies cannot repay their debts, increases the probability of a country's debt crisis and therefore increases borrowing costs. This situation has increased the concerns about the ability of the private sector, which has a high external debt burden, to pay its debts. In this context, the study aims to examine the causality relationship between country CDS premiums and private sector external debt in Turkey for the period 2010:Q1-2020:Q3. For this purpose, the Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality tests were used. According to the results of the analysis, there is no causality relationship between the variables. This result indicates that global factors are more effective in determining Turkey's CDS premium.

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