Abstract:

Aim: The purpose of this study is to forecast the amount of production for the year 2021 using the monthly broiler chicks production figures shared by the Turkey Statistics Institution. Material and Method: The data set of the study, which was shared by the Turkey Statistical Institute between January 2013 and November 2020, consists of the quantities of broiler chick production. The mentioned data set is a time series with 94 values and was modelled with the help of Eviews 11 program using the Box-Jenkins modelling strategy. Results: It was decided that the most suitable model that satisfies the classical time series assumptions is the 〖SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)〗_12 model. Monthly production forecast values for 2021 have been forecasted with the help of the model whose parameters are estimated. Conclusion: As a result of the study, it has been forecasted that 1 353 245 283 broiler chicks will be produced in 2021. Broiler chicken production is expected to be approximately 0.019% higher in 2021 than in 2020.

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