Özet:

In Turkey in 2013 12,181 houses were purchased by foreigners, while in 2018 this figure increased to 39,663 and increased by 225 per cent over the years (TUIK, 2019). Alanya, one of the main destinations of tourism, is a very remarkable district where a total of 32 thousand foreigners from 85 different nations have been housed (ALTSO, 2017). The study was also conducted in Alanya with the aim of identifying the factors affecting foreigners’ housing acquisitions, housing prices, and implemented two different models of multi-faceted empirical research.  The housing prices in the Alanya district were analyzed by the Johansen Integration-VECM and VAR-Granger Cause Test. In April 2015-2018, the number of housing sold to foreigners in Alanya and the monthly Euro/TRY exchange rate data were used to investigate the long-term relationship and causal conditions between the variables. The Johansen Integration test found that the variables were integrated and that there was a long-term relationship between them. The number of housing sold to foreigners in the VECM, where the target variable is housing prices, and the exchange rate variables are determined as the cause in the long and short term. According to the Granger causality test, it is the cause of the EUR price.

Özet:

A total value of 12,181 houses were purchased by foreign buyers in Turkey in 2013. By the year 2018, the number of property sales to foreigners increased to 39,663 and has led to an increased rate of 225% among those years (the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), 2019). The growth of the foreigner population in Alanya which is one of the most important tourism destinations of Antalya province in Turkey, leads to an increasing demand for housing. Therefore; Alanya has been a remarkable district where 32,000 foreigners from 85 different nationalities have purchased housing (ALTSO,2017). The focus of this study has been given to investigate the factors affecting the foreign buyers’ housing purchases and the housing prices in Alanya. Given to this purpose, two different models have been applied and a multi-dimensional empirical research has been conducted. Housing prices in Alanya are analyzed by Johansen Cointegration-VECM and VAR-Granger Causality Test. Long-term relationship and causality between the variables including the prices of housing purchases in Alanya; the number of houses sold to foreigners and the monthly EURO / TRY exchange rates during the period from April 2015 through 2018 are investigated. As a result of the Johansen Cointegration test, it has been found that the variables are cointegrated and there is a long-run relationship among variables. In VECM, where the target variable is the housing prices, variables including the number of houses sold to foreign buyers and the exchange rate are found to be the cause of the housing prices both in the short and long-run. According to the Granger causality test, EURO is found to be the cause of the price. 

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