Özet:

With the Decisions of 24 January 1980, the economy of Turkey has experienced radical changes in monetary markets, goods markets and foreign economic relations. Changes have been seen in the public sector as well. In this sense, it is important to examine the changes that occur in public spending, which is an instrument of financial policy. In addition to the structural changes, especially the crises that the Turkish economy faces after the 1990s have also influenced the change in the level of public spending, as well as in many economic balances. There are many studies in literature regarding the change of public spending that evaluate the direction of the relationship between economic growth and the increase in public spending. For example, the Wagner Law suggests that public spending will continue to rise. Peacock and Wiseman say the increase in public spending will be a jump in emergencies and the public spending will not return to the old level after the emergency situation passes. The failure to return to the previous level of expenditure after the emergency condition has disappeared is based on the fact that taxpayers consider reasonable the tax increase that occurs in emergency situations. The impact of this jumping has been studied using different methods, addressing different countries and groups of countries. It supports the thesis of scratching as well as the work of the qualification as well as the work of the critical qualification is also included in literature. In this sense, our work aims to test the thesis of jumping in question by addressing the period 1981-2015 from the point of view of the Turkish economy. For this purpose, the time series that has been achieved by the comparison of real public spending to the real Non-Current Domestic Rate has been implemented by Perron 1997 unit root tests and by Bai and Perron 1998, 2003a developed multiple structural break-up tests. Three structural breakthrough periods were identified in the time series, 1993, 1999 and 2004. Two of these periods of breakdown occurred before the 1994 and 2000 crises, the two economic crises in the Turkish economy. It is also equivalent to the Marmara earthquake, a major social catastrophe in 1999, which is the second breakdown period. The 1993 and 1999 breakthrough years show that public spending has increased at the actual level compared to their previous periods. In the period after the breakdown of 2004 it was found that the public expenditure in the real level was reduced according to the previous period.

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