Özet:

In the first phase of this study, Diebold and Yılmaz (2009) study the international spread of economic volatilities with the spread index method. In the second phase of the study, the situation asymmetry of monetary policy was tested by the method of Markov's regime change. According to the results of the Broadcasting Index, 48% of the shocks affecting Turkey are external. 12.5% of the economic volatility in Turkey is from South Korea, 8.4% from the United States, 6.4% from Japan, 4.5% from Greece and 3.2% from the Spanish economy. According to these findings, the economic conditions of these countries are a leading indicator for the Turkish economy. The findings of the Markov regime change model show that the economy of Turkey has grown 1.82 per cent in average in the growth regime, reduced 3.38 per cent in average in the reduction regime and slowed the growth in the exchange rate. Finally, economic evidence has been obtained that the TCMB could have a real impact on the expansion regime but could not have a real impact on the fight against stagnation.

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