Abstract:

The area of interest of the Political Business Cycles Theories is to research the effects of elections held in democratic countries on the economy. The version of the theory that accepts adapted expectations is known as the traditional approach, and the version that accepts rational expectations is known as the modern approach. Both approaches are again differentiated as Opportunistic and Partisan approaches. In this study, the existance of the traditional opportunistic model in Turkey is tested in the context of the political business cycles theory. Within the scope of the analysis; The 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018 general elections held between 2003-2009 were examined, and the indicators were gross domestic product, current transfers, unemployment rate, public expenditures, money supply, domestic loans, public bank loans, inflation rate quarterly data has been used. The models and assumptions developed by Alesina, Cohen and Roubini in 1992 were used and as a result of this some validity for Turkey was determined.

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