Abstract:

(2010 Turkish Budget Policy) 2010 Turkish central government budget figures reduce the expenditure and revenue size by 0.3 (from the ratio of 28.2 to 27.9) and revenue size by 1.3 points (reducing the ratio from with 22.7 to 21.3) with respect to GDP. Estimations made on the grounds of lowering public investments (1.8) and the social security transfers (5.6) [biggest share of the budget share allocated) overestimating the overall tax burdens (18.8) [by considering tax revenues will rise 12 % and two third of the tax revenues sourced from indirect or consumption taxes] and privatization revenues [estimation made for 2010 5.2 times greater than the 2009 realization] as ratios to GDP and converting primary deficit [0.1 % of GDP for 2009] to surplus [0.6 % of GDP for 2010] to reduce budget deficit [5.5 % of GDP in GDP to the level of 4.9 % GDP in 2010 rather high level than Maastricht criteria ] are highly optimistic. It would be rather difficult to implement the budget estimations and possibly to have a larger budgetary deficit if the 2009 growth rate probably negative to be announced in April 2010 along with 2010 growth rate set considerably higher then UN estimate as of 3.5 % due to the reason of overestimated tax revenues particularly indirect ones.

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