Abstract:

Oil which is most widely used energy resource in the world, at the same time it is important in giving direction to the international markets. As a country importing oil, it is believed that the Turkish economy was also affected by oil prices. For this purpose, Istanbul Stock Exchange indices that expected to be associated with the price of oil, were selected. We investigated how these indices and other macro-economic variables are influenced from each other. Data in period 2005-01/2015-12, analyses were made with 7 indices in BIST and relevant macroeconomic variables. The analyzed indices are BIST 100, BIST 30, BIST Electricity, BIST Chemistry, BIST Industrial, BIST Technology, BIST Transportation, and the macroeconomic variables considered to be related to these indices are oil prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, producer price index and industrial production index. As a result of this study it has been observed that oil prices have quite a low effect on points of analyzed indices, however, interest rates and foreign exchange rates have a strong effect on many of the indices. It has also been observed that economic crisis of 2008 has an effect on all of the 7 indices, showing that there were structural breaks in this period. In addition, it has been determined that shocks to macroeconomic variables caused responses in the short term. However, these responses were not permanent in the long term.

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