Abstract:

Today, increasing economic conservation and trade wars around the world make it difficult to correctly predict the future forecast of macroeconomic data and their impact on the exchanges. Investors are faced with an economic conjunction that should not change from day to day, where both bilateral and multilateral trade agreements begin to change rapidly. This economic environment makes it compulsory for investors to take more into account the impact of macroeconomic variables when creating and managing their portfolios. In this environment in which economic negatives increase, the aim of the work is to try to reveal the impact of these variables on the lower stock exchanges by using export and import quantity indicators. For this reason, the monthly data of February 2003 and October 2018 and 189 periods were used. The study used import and export quantity indices and 14 BIST sub-indices, the long-term integration relationship was studied with the VAR models established by the methodology of Johanssen and Juselius (1990) and the long-term integration relationship between the 12 sub-burs index and the import and export quantity index was found. In order to reveal the short-term dynamics of the long-term integration relationship, the VEC models have been established, the short-term relationship between the export and import quantity index and the 6 stock sub-index (ENGIDA, INNOVATION, ENELECTRIC, ENTECHNOLOGY, ENTELECOM and ENTOPSAT) has been established.

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