Abstract:

Global climate change, which has been increasing its impact in recent years, has become a problem that humanity must take precautions and increase its adaptation efforts. The most prominent indicators of the differences in climatic parameters are heat waves that last longer, forest fires, droughts, heavy rainfall, floods and landslides that increase in frequency with heat waves. Although climate change has different consequences in different parts of the world, the Mediterranean Basin, in which Turkey is located, is one of the areas expected to be most affected by these changes. The aim of this study is to provide future projections on Turkey's temperature and precipitation climate variables and to determine the possible differentiations. Models developed by scientific organizations and emission scenarios applied are important methods for predicting possible future changes. In the study, multiple model averages of the models and scenarios included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) project were used. The emission scenarios included in the analysis are RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analyses of the study were carried out with Google Earth Engine cloud operating system and mapped with ArcGIS 10.4 program. As a result of the analysis, Turkey will face warmer days in the period 2005-2040 compared to today's averages. The upward trend in maximum temperature averages is stronger. The climatic conditions observed on the Mediterranean coasts will expand their sphere of influence towards the Aegean and Marmara regions in the coming years. Eastern Anatolia will experience stronger increases in minimum temperature averages. Precipitation will decrease in the Mediterranean-Aegean coasts and inland regions, and partially increase in the Eastern Black Sea coasts. In general, there is no positive or negative trend when the average precipitation of the whole area of Turkey is taken into consideration.

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