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24 Ocak 1980 kararları ile birlikte Türkiye ekonomisinde para piyasaları, mal piyasaları ve dış ekonomik ilişkilerde köklü değişimler yaşamıştır. Yaşanan köklü değişimler kamu sektöründe de hissedilmiştir. Bu anlamda bir maliye politikası aracı olan kamu harcamalarında meydana gelen değişimlerin incelenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Yapısal değişimlerin yanı sıra, özellikle 1990 yılı sonrasında Türkiye ekonomisinin karşı karşıya kaldığı krizler birçok ekonomik dengede olduğu gibi kamu harcamalarının düzeyinin değişmesi üzerinde de etkili olmuştur. Kamu harcamalarının değişimi ile ilgili olarak literatürde ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve kamu harcamalarının artışını değerlendiren birçok çalışma yer almaktadır. Örneğin Wagner Kanunu kamu harcamalarının sürekli artacağını öne sürmektedir. Peacock ve Wiseman ise kamu harcamalarında gerçekleşen artışın olağanüstü durumlarda sıçrama göstereceği ve olağanüstü durum geçtikten sonra kamu harcamaları düzeyinin eski seviyesine dönmeyeceği üzerinde durmaktadır. Harcama düzeyinin olağanüstü koşul ortadan kalktıktan sonra eski düzeyine dönmemesi vergi mükelleflerinin olağanüstü durumlarda ortaya çıkan vergi artışını makul görmesine dayanmaktadır. Söz konusu sıçrama etkisi farklı ülkeler ve ülke gruplarını ele alarak, farklı yöntemler kullanarak incelenmiştir. Sıçrama tezini destekler nitelikteki çalışmaların yanı sıra eleştirel nitelikteki çalışmalar da literatürde yer almaktadır.Bu anlamda çalışmamız Türkiye ekonomisi açısından 1981-2015 dönemini ele alarak söz konusu sıçrama tezini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla yıllar itibariyle reel kamu harcamalarının, reel Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla’ya oranlanmasıyla elde edilen zaman serisine Perron 1997 birim kök testleri ve Bai ve Perron 1998, 2003a tarafından geliştirilen çoklu yapısal kırılma testleri uygulanmıştır. Yapısal kırılma testleri sonucunda söz konusu zaman serisinde 1993, 1999 ve 2004 yılları olmak üzere üç yapısal kırılma dönemi tespit edilmiştir. Söz konusu kırılma dönemlerinden ikisi; Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanan iki ekonomik kriz olan 1994 ve 2000 krizi öncesinde gerçekleşmiştir. Ayrıca ikinci kırılma dönemi olan 1999 yılı toplumsal anlamda yaşanan büyük bir afet olan Marmara depremine denk gelmektedir. 1993 ve 1999 kırılma yılları kendilerinden önceki döneme göre kamu harcamalarının reel düzeyinde artış yaşandığını göstermektedir. 2004 kırılma yılı sonrasındaki dönemde ise kendinden önceki döneme göre kamu harcamalarının reel düzeyinde azalma gerçekleştiği tespit edilmiştir.
With the Decisions of 24 January 1980, the economy of Turkey has experienced radical changes in monetary markets, goods markets and foreign economic relations. Changes have been seen in the public sector as well. In this sense, it is important to examine the changes that occur in public spending, which is an instrument of financial policy. In addition to the structural changes, especially the crises that the Turkish economy faces after the 1990s have also influenced the change in the level of public spending, as well as in many economic balances. There are many studies in literature regarding the change of public spending that evaluate the direction of the relationship between economic growth and the increase in public spending. For example, the Wagner Law suggests that public spending will continue to rise. Peacock and Wiseman say the increase in public spending will be a jump in emergencies and the public spending will not return to the old level after the emergency situation passes. The failure to return to the previous level of expenditure after the emergency condition has disappeared is based on the fact that taxpayers consider reasonable the tax increase that occurs in emergency situations. The impact of this jumping has been studied using different methods, addressing different countries and groups of countries. It supports the thesis of scratching as well as the work of the qualification as well as the work of the critical qualification is also included in literature. In this sense, our work aims to test the thesis of jumping in question by addressing the period 1981-2015 from the point of view of the Turkish economy. For this purpose, the time series that has been achieved by the comparison of real public spending to the real Non-Current Domestic Rate has been implemented by Perron 1997 unit root tests and by Bai and Perron 1998, 2003a developed multiple structural break-up tests. Three structural breakthrough periods were identified in the time series, 1993, 1999 and 2004. Two of these periods of breakdown occurred before the 1994 and 2000 crises, the two economic crises in the Turkish economy. It is also equivalent to the Marmara earthquake, a major social catastrophe in 1999, which is the second breakdown period. The 1993 and 1999 breakthrough years show that public spending has increased at the actual level compared to their previous periods. In the period after the breakdown of 2004 it was found that the public expenditure in the real level was reduced according to the previous period.
The Turkish economy has undergone radical changes in the area of financial markets, commodity markets and foreign economic relations after after the decisions of 24th January 1980. The radical changes have been felt in the public sector. In this sense, it is important to examine the changes in public expenditures, which is a fiscal policy instrument. As well as structural changes, particularly in crises faced by Turkey's economy after 1990 has been effective on a change in the level of public expenditure, as in many economic balance. There are many studies evaluating the direction of the relationship between economic growth and the increase in public expenditures in the literature regarding the change of public expenditures. For example, Wagner's Law suggests that public expenditures will increase continuously. Peacock and Wiseman, on the other hand, emphasize that the increase in public expenditures will jump in extraordinary situations and that the level of public expenditures will not revert to the old level after the case has passed. The fact that the level of expenditure does not return to its original level after the elimination of the extraordinary condition is based on the fact that taxpayers see the tax increase that occurs in extraordinary situations as reasonable. The displacement effect was examined by using different methods by considering different countries and groups of countries. Critical studies are included in the literature, as well as studies supporting the displacement effect. In this sense, our study aims to test the displacement effect by taking the 1981-2015 period in terms of Turkey's economy. For this purpose, Perron 1997 unit root tests and multiple structural break tests developed by Bai and Perron 1998, 2003a were applied to the time series obtained by the ratio of Real Public Expenditures to Real Gross Domestic Product by years. As a result of the structural break tests, three structural break periods were determined in the time series as 1993, 1999 and 2004. Two of these structural break periods; corresponds to two economic crisis which were happened in the 1994 and 2000. In addition, the second breaking period, coincided with the Marmara earthquake, which is a major social catastrophe. The structural break years 1993 and 1999 show that the level of public expenditures has increased compared to the previous period. In the period following the 2004 structural break year, real expenditures of public expenditures decreased compared to the previous period
Alan : Eğitim Bilimleri; Filoloji; Güzel Sanatlar; Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Ulusal
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