Atıf Sayısı
3
Görüntüleme
59
İndirme
6
Ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ve karmaşık ilişki araştırmacıların her zaman ilgi odağı olmuştur. Bu çalışmada BİST Banka, Döviz Kuru, Altın Fiyatları (ons) ve Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla 2002/Q1 ve 2019/Q4 arasındaki dönem ele alınarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Hacker & Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap nedensellik analizi ve Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik analizi ile test edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlık dereceleri, öncelikle ADF ve KPSS birim kök testleri ile ardından yapısal kırılmaları göz önüne alan LS (2004) testi ile belirlenmiştir. Bootstrap nedensellik analizine göre %5 anlamlılık düzeyinde sadece GSYİH’dan BİST Banka’ya doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu saptanmıştır. Asimetrik nedensellik analizinin sonuçlarına göre dolar kurundaki negatif yönlü bir şokun, BİST Banka’daki pozitif yönlü şokun nedeni olduğu, BİST Bankadaki pozitif yönlü şokun, GSYİH’daki pozitif yönlü şokun nedeni olduğu gözlenmiştir. Ayrıca BİST Banka ve altın fiyatları arasındaki nedensellik incelendiğinde, altın fiyatlarındaki pozitif yönlü şokun, BİST Banka’nın hem pozitif hem de negatif yönlü şoklarının nedeni olduğu belirlenmiştir.
The dynamic and complex relationship between economic variables has always been the focus of interest of researchers. In this study, the relationship between BIST Bank, Currency Dry, Gold Prices (ons) and Non-clean domestic currency (GDP) is studied empirically. For this purpose, the relationship between the variables, addressing the period between 2002/Q1 and 2019/Q4, has been tested by the Hacker & Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap causality analysis and Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality analysis. The stagnation degrees of the series were determined first by the ADF and KPSS unit root tests and then by the LS (2004) test that took into account structural breakdowns. According to Bootstrap Causability Analysis, only one-way Causability from GDP to BIST Bank is found at the 5% significance level. According to the results of the asymmetrical causal analysis, a negative shock in the dollar currency was observed as the cause of the positive shock in the BIST Bank, the positive shock in the BIST Bank, the cause of the positive shock in the GDP. In addition, when the reasoning between the BIST Bank and the gold prices is examined, the positive shock in the gold prices is determined as the cause of the BIST Bank’s both positive and negative shock.
The dynamic and complex relationship between economic variables has always been the focus of researchers. This study empirically examines the relationship between BIST Bank, Exchange Rate, Gold Prices (ounces) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For this purpose, the period between 2002/Q1 and 2019/Q4 was examined and the relationship between the variables was tested with Hacker & Hatemi-J (2006) bootstrap causality analysis and Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality analysis. Stationary degrees of the series were determined by ADF and KPSS unit root tests and then LS (2004) test, which takes into account structural breaks. According to Bootstrap causality analysis, it was determined that there is one-way causality from GDP to BIST Bank at 5% significance level from BIST Bank to gold prices. According to the results of the asymmetric causality analysis, it was observed that a negative shock in the exchange rate was the cause of the positive shock in the BIST Bank, and the positive shock in the BIST Bank was the cause of the positive shock in the GDP. Also, when the causality between BIST Bank and gold prices is analyzed, it is determined that the positive shock in gold prices is the cause of both positive and negative shocks of BİST Bank.
Alan : Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler
Dergi Türü : Ulusal
Makale Detay 
Atıf Yapanlar
Benzer Makaleler
PDF Görüntüle
Dergi Bilgisi
Eseri Dinleyin
Bu Sayfayı Yazdırın
Paylaş
Mendeley
