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  Citation Number 7
 Views 138
 Downloands 115
Covid-19 Salgınının Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretine Etkisi: Bir Yapısal Kırılma Analizi
2021
Journal:  
İzmir İktisat Dergisi
Author:  
Abstract:

2019 yılının Aralık ayında Çin’in Wuhan şehrinde ortaya çıkan Covid-19 virüsü 2020 yılı ile küresel bir salgına dönüşmüştür. Küresel salgından birçok ülke ekonomisi olumsuz etkilenmiştir. Buna ek olarak, salgının dış ticaret üzerinde de olumsuz etkisi olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesinde büyük itici gücü olan dış ticaretin, salgından nasıl etkilendiğinin analiz edilerek literatüre katkı sağlamaktır. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin 2013:01 ile 2020:11 dönemi ihracat ve ithalat verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın analizi iki bölümden oluşmaktadır. İlk olarak Bai ve Perron yapısal kırılma testi ile değişkenlerin kırılma tarihleri belirlenmiştir. İkinci olarak ise, bu kırılma tarihleri dikkate alınarak iki değişken için; trendde yapısal değişiklikler analizi yapılmıştır. Sonuç olarak; ihracat ve ithalat için 2020:2 tarihinde kırılma olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Yapısal değişiklik analizlerinde ise; salgının Türkiye’nin ihracat ve ithalat eğrilerinin eğimini değiştirdiği fakat ihracat ve ithalatın kısa sürede toparlandığı görülmüştür.

Keywords:

The Impact Of The Covid-19 Outbreak On Turkey's Foreign Trade: A Structural Break Analysis
2021
Author:  
Abstract:

The Covid-19 virus, which emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019, has turned into a global epidemic in 2020. The economies of many countries have been adversely affected by the global epidemic. In addition, the epidemic had a negative impact on foreign trade. The aim of this study is to contribute to the literature by analyzing how foreign trade, which is the major driving force in Turkey's economic growth, was affected by the epidemic. In the study, Turkey's export and import data for the period 2013:01 and 2020:11 were used. The analysis of the study consists of two parts. First, the breaking dates of the variables were determined by the Bai and Perron structural break test. Secondly, considering these breakout dates, for two variables; Structural changes in the trend analysis was performed. In conclusion; It was determined that there was a break in 2020:2 for exports and imports. In structural change analysis; It was seen that the epidemic changed the slope of Turkey's export and import curves, but exports and imports recovered in a short time.

Keywords:

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İzmir İktisat Dergisi

Field :   Sosyal, Beşeri ve İdari Bilimler

Journal Type :   Ulusal

Metrics
Article : 711
Cite : 6.609
2023 Impact : 0.367
İzmir İktisat Dergisi