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Bu çalışmada, Wagner Yasası ile Keynesyen Hipotez açısından Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 1930-2014 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlıkları geleneksel birim kök testleri ve yapısal kırılmaya izin veren birim kök testlerine göre sınanmıştır. Seriler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiyi tespit edebilmek amacıyla çoklu yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Maki (2012) Eşbütünleşme Testi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduktan sonra, eşbütünleşme katsayı tahmincisi olan FMOLS kullanılarak eşbütünleşme katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Son olarak, Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlarda, kamu harcamalarındaki artış ekonomik büyümeyi artırdığı ve kamu harcamasından ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Elde edilen bulgularda, Türkiye’de ele alınan dönemde Wagner Yasasının geçerli olmadığı, ancak Keynesyen Hipotezi destekler nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılmıştır.
In this study, the Wagner Act and the Keynesian Hypothesis analyzed the relationship between public spending and economic growth in Turkey for the 1930-2014 period. The stages of the series have been tested according to traditional unit root tests and unit root tests that allow structural breakdown. The Maki (2012) Integration Test, which allows multiple structural breakdowns to identify the long-term relationship between the series, has been used. After the integration relationship was established, the integration rates were predicted using FMOLS, which is the forecast of the integration rate. Finally, Hatemi-J (2012) was used asymmetrical causality method. The results found that the increase in public expenditure increased economic growth and a one-way causal relationship from public expenditure to economic growth. In the findings obtained, the Wagner Act was not valid in the period discussed in Turkey, but Keynesian Hypothesis supports a causality relationship found.
This study, attempts to test Wagner’s Law and Keynesian Hypotheses examined by the relationship between public expenditures and economic growth in Turkey for the 1923 and 2014 period. Stationary of the series have been tested with traditional unit root tests and allowing structural breaks unit root tests. In order to determine long-term relationships between the series that allow multiple structural break Maki (2012) Cointegration Test was used. After finding cointegration relationship, FMOLS Cointegratıon Coefficient Estimator is used for cointegration coefficients estimated. Finally, Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality method was used. The results obtained in there is long-run relationship between public expenditures and economic growth. Moreover, according to the results of causality analysis, there is a direction of causality is from public expenditures to economic growth. The findings discussed in Turkey in the period of the Wagner Act does not apply, however, it has seen the Keynesian hypothesis supports causality.
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