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Bu çalışmada Kırkgöze Havzası’nın kar birikme ve erime dönemlerindeki hidrolojik davranışını modellemek için kullanılan HSPF model parametreleri güncellenerek kalibre edilmiştir. BASINS programında önceden alansal karakterizasyonu yapılmış olan havzanın HSPF model programı ile havza ve iklim karakterizasyonu yapılarak üç farklı noktada kar birikmesi ve erimesi davranışları modellenmiş ve yağış ve sıcaklık parametrelerinin öngörülen iklim değişikliği trendlerinin bölgedeki karın birikme ve erime süreçleri üzerindeki etkileri simüle edilmiştir. Sıcaklık ve yağış, iklim değişikliğinin en önemli göstergeleridir. Özellikle kar yağışından beslenen havzalar için, karların erime döneminin erkene çekilmesi akarsu akımlarını etkiler. Sıcaklık artışı, kar erime dönemlerinin erkene çekilmesine sebep olmakta ve bunun sonucunda akarsuların hidrolojik rejimleri değişmektedir. Kavramsal yapıdaki karmaşık bir model olan HSPF modeli ile Türkiye’de kar erimesinin etkili olduğu dağlık havzalarda farklı yükseklik ve bakıdaki üç farklı noktada gerçekleştirilen analizler ile Türkiye’nin Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ndeki iklim değişikliği sonucu öngörülen yağış ve sıcaklık trendlerinin karın birikmesine ve erimesine olan etkisi 2050 yılı tahminleri ile ortaya konulmuştur. 2011 yılı verileri referans alınarak gelecekteki 40 yıllık periyod için gerçekleştirilen tahminlere göre erime dönemi yüksek rakımlarda kuzey bakıda 15 gün, güney bakıda ise 25 gün kadar öne kayabilmektedir. Çalışmada kar örtüsü üzerine yağan yağmurun ve erken erime sonucu çıplak arazi üzerine yağarak direk akışa geçen yağmurun gözlenen debiler üzerinde önemli etkilerinin olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Büyük kar kütlelerinden salınan pik debiler günlük bazda 1.4 kata kadar çıkabilmektedir. Bu ise ilerleyen dönemde bazı lokasyonlarda taşkın debilerinde önemli bir artışa işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle taşkın koruma yapılarının ekonomik ömürleri boyunca hizmet verebilmesi için küresel iklim değişikliği trendleri gözönünde tutularak boyutlandırılması gerektiği sonucunu doğurmaktadır. Ayrıca karın zamanla daha yüksek kotlarda birikmeye başlayacak olması ile karla kaplı alanların azalacak olması özellikle farklı disiplinlerdeki kış sporlarının yapıldığı Doğu Anadolu’da mevcut bulunan tesislerin geleceğe yönelik projeksiyonlarının yapılması hususunda önem arz etmektedir.
In this study, the HSPF model parameters used to model the hydrological behavior of the Crusade Pool in the snow accumulation and erosion periods have been updated by calibration. The HSPF model program of the pool, which has been previously made alansal characterization in the BASINS program, has modeled the accumulation and erosion behaviors at three different points by making the pool and climate characterization and the impact of the weather change trends predicted by the rain and temperature parameters on the accumulation and erosion processes of the pool in the region has been simulated. Temperature and rain are the most important indicators of climate change. Especially for swimming pools feeding from the snow, the early withdrawal of the snow period of erosion affects the flow flow. The increase in temperature causes the early withdrawal of the snow eruption periods, and as a result, the hydrological regimes of the flows change. The HSPF model, a complex model in the conceptual structure, with the analyses carried out at three different points of altitude and care in the mountainous basins where snow erosion is effective in Turkey and the impact of rain and temperature trends predicted as a result of climate change in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey on the accumulation and erosion of snow has been revealed with the 2050 forecasts. According to the 2011 data referring to the forecast for the next 40 year period, the erosion period can be 15 days ahead in the northern and 25 days ahead in the southern. The study found that the rain on the snow cover and the early erosion resulted in the rain on the naked ground and the rain that flows directly has significant effects on the observed vessels. The pics that are released from large snow masses can rise up to 1.4 times a day. This, however, indicates a significant increase in the flow in some locations in advance. Therefore, it results in the conclusion that the protection structures must be dimensioned by taking into account global climate change trends in order to be able to serve throughout their economic life. In addition, it is important that the snow will begin to accumulate in higher quotas over time and that the snow-covered areas will be reduced, especially in the field of winter sports in different disciplines, where the facilities in Eastern Anadolu are available to be projected to the future.
In this study, HSPF model inputs were re-calibrated to model the Kırkgöze Basin’s hydrological behavior in terms of snow accumulation and depletion attitudes. Spatial characterization was defined earlier by using the BASINS program for the application of the HSPF model inputs. By using the HSPF model program, basin and climate characterization were constructed and the effects of climate change impact based on temperature and precipitation trends investigated upon snow accumulation and depletion simulations at 3 different locations. Temperature and precipitation are the most important indicators of climate change. Especially for the basins fed from snowfall, withdrawing the snow-melting period to earlier times will affect the streamflows. The rise in temperature leads to early snow melting and as a result, the hydrological regimes of the rivers change. The analysis performed using HSPF such a conceptual model with a complex structure conveniently for the snowmelt dominated mountainous basins in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey at three different stations with various aspects and altitudes. The effects of climate change trends over precipitation and temperature values have been analyzed to determine their impacts on snowpack for the year 2050 in the eastern mountainous regions of Turkey. According to the climate forecasts for the next 40-year period based on the 2011 data, at higher altitudes, the melting period can shift up to 15 days earlier from the snowpacks having the north aspect and 25 days from the south aspects. It was concluded that rain on snow events and the rain falling directly on bare land as a result of early melting had significant effects on observed flow rates. Peak flows released from the highland snowpacks can reach up to 1.4 times at daily scale. At some locations, this indicates a significant increase in flood flow rates for the following period. Flood protection structures should be resized according to global climate change impacts to serve for the future period throughout their economic lives. Besides, snowcovered areas will gradually decrease, as the snow will begin to accumulate at higher elevations, it is important to make future projections of the existing facilities in Eastern Anatolia, where winter sports in different disciplines are still performing.
Field : Fen Bilimleri ve Matematik; Mühendislik
Journal Type : Uluslararası
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