Abstract:

Turkey experienced three great economic crises in November 2000, February 2001 and 2008 just after 2000. One of the economic actors which has been affected by the 2000 crisis and the following crises is foreign trade. Foreign trade is one of the most significant factors which influences economic capacity of developing countries. Due to the significance of foreign trade on economy, it is aimed to be analyzed the influence of financial crises experienced after 2000 in Turkey on foreign trade in this study. For this purpose, real effective exchange rate, growth and the values national incomes of 6 countries which are leadings on Turkey's exportation were included to the analysis as explanatory variables in the economic model in order to equate exportation and importation equations as goal of the study. The economic model was estimated by using monthly data during the periods between 2000-2017. At first, it was tested if time-series data are stable or not and predicted long-term relationships of the data that was determined equally integrated within the frame of Johansen Cointegration Analysis as a result of unit root test. For import and export equations, the convergence speeds towards the long-term equilibrium value using weak non-exogenous variables were analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM). At the analysis, exportation and importation bring into balance again in the long term in the face of any shock and it is made out that long term equilibrium is again achieved after around 34 periods (34 months) in export and 142 periods (142 months) in import.

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