Abstract:

Since the changes in macroeconomic factors affect the country's economies, companies and investors, estimating the direction of the said change is important for the decisions to be taken by the relevant parties. In the study, it was aimed to examine the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables before and during COVID 19. For this purpose, the relationship between gold (ONS) prices, BIST100 Index, CDS premiums, exchange rates and interest rates, whose daily data can be accessed between 6 February 2018 and 3 March 2022, was examined by Vector Autoregression Model (VAR)/Granger causality analysis. In the light of the findings, before COVID 19; A one-way causality relationship has been determined from BIST100 Index to interest rates, from exchange rates to BIST100 Index and CDS premiums. In the COVID-19 period, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between exchange rates and BIST100 Index and CDS premiums, and a unidirectional causality relationship from interest rates to BIST100 index and CDS premiums.

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