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Bu çalışmada, lisanslı ve şebekeye bağlı 1 MW gücündeki fotovoltaik GES yatırımının günümüz ekonomik koşullarına göre finansal analizi yapılarak yatırımın kârlı olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda öncelikle ülkemiz güneş enerjisi potansiyel atlasından faydalanılarak Van ili Edremit ilçesinin GES kurulumu için uygunluğu değerlendirilmiş ve arazi seçimi yapılmıştır. Enerji hesaplamalarının yapılmasında PVGIS çevrim içi veri tabanından yararlanılmış ve seçilen arazi için yıllık elektrik üretim miktarı hesaplanmıştır. Yatırımın ekonomik ömrü olan 25 yıl boyunca panel veriminde yıllık %0.7 oranında lineer düşüş olacağı varsayılmıştır. Yatırımın fayda ve masraf unsurları, her birine karşılık gelen güncel yatırım maliyetleri belirtilerek detaylı şekilde açıklanmıştır. Yatırımın tamamen öz sermaye veya on yıl geri ödemeli TurSEFF yenilenebilir enerji kredisi ile yapılması durumları için geri ödeme süresi (GÖS), net bugünkü değer (NBD), iç kârlılık oranı (İKO) ve fayda/masraf oranı (FMO) yöntemleri kullanılarak finansal analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Mevcut alım garantisi fiyatları ile serbest piyasada gerçekleşen elektrik satış fiyatları (piyasa takas fiyatı) esas alınarak yapılan değerlendirmeye göre, %10 kâr payı beklentisi altında yatırımın öz sermaye ile yapılması halinde NBD pozitif, FMO 1’den büyük ve İKO %22.35 olarak hesaplanmış, bu durumda yatırımın geri ödeme süresi 4 yıl olarak bulunmuştur. Yatırım maliyetlerinin kredi ile karşılanması halinde ise NBD negatif olarak hesaplanmış, ayrıca FMO 0.928, İKO %6.76 ve geri ödeme süresi 9 yıl olarak bulunmuştur. Finansal analize örnek olarak seçilen Van ilinde gerçekleştirilen 1 MW GES yatırımının öz sermaye ile yapılması halinde kabul edilebileceği, ilk yatırım maliyetlerinin tamamen kredi ile karşılanması halinde ise yatırımın yapılabilir olmadığı sonuçlarına ulaşılmıştır.
In this study, the licensed and network-connected 1MW photovoltaic GES investment was examined by a financial analysis based on the current economic conditions and whether the investment was profitable. In this context, first of all, our country’s solar energy potential atlas has been assessed and land selection has been made. In energy calculations, the annual amount of electricity production for the selected land used and calculated from the PVGIS in-circuit database. It is predicted that the panel yield will decline linearly by 0.7 per cent per year over the course of the 25 years of the investment’s economic life. The benefits and cost elements of the investment are detailed, indicating the current investment costs corresponding to each. Financial analysis has been carried out using the methods of return time (GÖS), net current value (NBD), internal profit rate (ICO) and profit/expenses rate (FMO) for cases where the investment is made with a fully own capital or ten-year repaid TurSEFF renewable energy loan. According to the assessment based on the existing purchase guarantee prices and the electricity sales prices in the free market (market exchange price), the profit share of 10% is expected to be NBD positive if the investment is made with its own capital, greater than FMO 1 and IKO is calculated as 22.35%, in this case the return period of the investment is 4 years. If the investment costs are paid with credit, the NBD is calculated as negative, and the FMO is 0.928, the IKO is 6%. 76 and the return period was found as 9 years. The financial analysis has come to the conclusion that 1 MW GES investment in the Van province can be accepted if it is made with its own capital, and if the initial investment costs are fully satisfied with the loan, the investment cannot be made.
In this study, financial analysis of the licensed and grid-connected 1 MW photovoltaic solar power plant investment according to today’s economic conditions was made and it was examined whether the investment is profitable or not. First of all, the suitability of the Edremit district of Van province for the solar PV installation was evaluated by using our country’s solar energy potential map, and land selection was made accordingly. PVGIS online database was used for energy calculations, and the annual electricity generation for the selected land was calculated. It is assumed that the efficiency of solar PV panels will decrease linearly by 0.7 percent per year over the course of the investment’s economic life of 25 years. The investment’s benefit and cost elements were thoroughly outlined, including current investment costs corresponding to each item. For cases where the investment is made entirely with equity capital or a TurSEFF renewable energy loan with a ten-year repayment term, financial analysis was performed using methods of payback period (PBP), net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and benefit cost ratio (BCR). According to the analysis based on current purchase guarantee and market clearing prices, if the investment is made with equity and a 10% profit margin is anticipated, the NPV is positive, the BCR is greater than 1 and the IRR is 22.35 percent. The investment’s payback period was found to be 4 years in this case. However, if the loan covers the investment costs, the NPV is negative, the BCR is 0.928, the IRR is 6.76 percent, and the payback period is 9 years. The evaluation of the 1 MW SPP investment conducted in Van province, which was chosen as a case study for financial analysis, concluded that an affirmative investment decision could be made if the investment was made with equity capital, and that if the investment was entirely funded by loan, the investment could not be deemed feasible.
Field : Fen Bilimleri ve Matematik; Mühendislik
Journal Type : Ulusal
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