Özet:

The Likely Budget Effect of Turkish Membership to European Union European Union EU initiated the accession negotiations with Turkey on 3rd of October 2005 Turkey’s accession which is not expected before 2014 would be a challange for both the EU and Turkey This paper analyses the likely budget effect of Turkish membership to the European Union Given its size level of economic development and dependence on agriculture Turkey’s accession would have an important effect on the EU budget Turkey may become the largest recipient of transfers from the EU budget under present rules and policies The net costs estimated in various studies range from 7 billion Euro to 18 billion Euro a year According to The Commisison estimates total Common Agricultural Policy CAP transfers to Turkey would be 8 2 billion Euro in terms of 2004 prices by 2025 It is diffucult to predict how much Turkey would cost the EU budget since both EU policies and conditons in Turkey would change Keywords: Turkey EU Membership; Budget Effects JEL Classification: F02 F15

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