Abstract:

With the process of commercial liberalization that began in the 1980s in the world economy, developing countries have abandoned import-residential industrialization policies and adopted export-oriented growth strategy. After this change in the foreign trade strategy, the significant increase in importance for countries, the impact of exports on various macroeconomic indicators, has also been curious for researchers. As in many developing countries, a similar process has occurred in the Turkish economy. Turkey’s exports, which were around $3 billion in 1980, rose to $170 billion in 2020. More than 9% of the total exports of Turkey are made by the industry. In this study, the export and employment relationship in the industrial sector of Turkey was studied as empirical for the period 1991-2019. The data used in the study was provided from the World Bank’s database. As an empirical method, with the Fourier-based FKPSS and FADF unit root tests, the Hatemi-J (2011) Asymmetric Cause Test was preferred. The findings obtained from the unit root test show that they are stable in the first differences of the series. The results of the asymmetrical causality test are rejected by the hypotheses that “positive shocks on export are not the cause of positive shocks on employment” and that “negative shocks on export are not the cause of negative shocks on employment.” Accordingly, increases or decreases in exports are considered as the cause of the same direction changes that occur in employment.

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