Abstract:

Small and medium-sized enterprises constitute 99.8% of all enterprises in Turkey. Small and medium-sized enterprises provide 73.8% of employment in the country while realizing 56.3% of total exports. This study aimed to determine the effect of macroeconomic indicators on the SME index, considering the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Turkish economy. Monthly data on the variables of the dollar exchange rate, Euro exchange rate, commercial loan interest rate, real confidence index, consumer confidence index, and industrial production index for the period of December 2013-July 2021, which are thought to have an impact on the SME index, were analyzed using the multivariate adaptive regression curves (MARS) method. According to the analysis results, it was determined that the variables of Euro rate, dollar rate, commercial loan interest rate, and stock market index had a statistically significant effect on the SME index. In general, it can be stated that the stock market index, dollar rate, and Euro rate have an increasing impact on the SME index, while the commercial loan interest rate has a decreasing effect inversely with the index. In addition, according to the MARS method, the Euro rate was found to be the variable with the highest impact on the index, followed by the dollar rate, commercial loan interest rate, and stock market index, respectively. These results show that the regulatory authorities' adoption of policies to protect interest rates and exchange rates will positively impact small and medium-sized enterprises. 

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