Abstract:

Ageing is seen as an important problem in all countries of the world in the coming decades. It is predicted that the current elderly population will increase significantly in the future due to many reasons. The research aims to predict the future situation of the elderly population and to reveal its relationship with health services. For this purpose, the ARMA model has been applied to predict the elderly population ratios of country groups for the future. The data of the research, taking into account the World Bank's grouping of countries according to their income levels; consists of population ratios of 65 and over among the total population of low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries. The data covers the period 1960-2019, and Eviews 9.0 and Stata 15.0 package programs were used to analyze the data. In the research, the rate of the population over 65 years old in 2030; In low- and lower-middle-income countries, is predicted to increase by 1.28% to 3.3218%. It is predicted that it will increase to 10,8670% with an increase of 34.88% in upper-middle-income countries, and rise to 21.1061% in high-income countries, with an increase of 13.77%. It is predicted that the increasing elderly population will significantly increase health expenditures in the future. As a matter of fact, in the data of 2000-2019, it has been observed that the average share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the average share of health in the countries in the low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income groups has increased significantly. In the health services to be offered to the elderly for the future; Suggestions such as displaying a multidisciplinary approach, making plans by central governments including local government units and acting together in the field of implementation, acting together with the public and private sectors in policies to be formed against ageing, and making clear planning studies for the future were presented.

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