Abstract:

It is predicted that prosperity will increase as a result of the liberalization of world trade and the effective use of resources. However, today, when globalization is accelerating, it is seen that the income distribution in the world is not fair despite the increase in world income. For this reason, it is important to reveal the impact of world foreign trade on welfare and income inequality. The aim of this study to investigate the long-term relationship and causality relationship between exports and imports of goods and services, savings, inflation and the gini index for the period 2004-2020 in 30 countries in the upper-middle- and high-income groups. In the study conducted with the panel ARDL method, coefficient estimation and causality tests were performed with panel unit root test, cointegration test and PMG estimator. In the analysis using Panel ARDL-PMG and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Causality Test, a cointegration relationship was detected between exports, imports, savings and gini index. It was determined that exports and savings had a negative effect on the gini coefficient, while imports had a positive effect. Additionally, a unidirectional causality was found from exports, imports and savings to the gini index.

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