Abstract:

Climate change and the increasing impact of global warming on the environment have made the climate crisis one of the most important issues discussed worldwide. The determination and evaluation of the future climate is vital to reduce the impacts of climate change and to adapt to these changes. This study aims to determine the potential effects of climate change on the upcoming maximum and minimum temperatures of the Tokat province. For this purpose, the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-2M general circulation models (GDM) in the CMIP5 archive have been reduced to regional scale by the dynamic scale reduction method of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario output and the maximum and minimum temperature data of the Tokat meteorological station. A combined model of the 1975-2000 period temperature data of GDM outputs was established using the input of the statistical scale reduction model based on artificial nervous networks (YSA). Then with the help of this model, the maximum and minimum temperature values for the 2023-2092 period of the same station were produced for both scenarios and compared to the previous period for the repair periods. The results of the study estimate that the maximum temperatures of the Tokat meteorological station in the future periods may vary between -0.7 and 2.9 °C according to the RCP4.5 scenario, between -1.2 and 4.4 °C according to the RCP8.5 scenario, and the minimum temperatures according to the RCP4.5 scenario between -2.6 and 5.2 °C, and between -4.8 and 7.8 °C according to the RCP8.5 scenario.

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