Özet:

Today, Net Present Value (NPV), which is calculated according to Discounted Cash Flows (DNA), which is one of the traditional valuation methods, is frequently used in the valuation of large-budget investments, both in academic studies in the literature and in investment valuation applications. Simulations, which have been used in investment valuation applications for a while, are quite common in terms of ease of calculation and having a more dynamic working principle. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is one of the most frequently used methods in simulation applications. The most important feature that distinguishes MCS from other valuation methods is that instead of using the direct values of the parameters that are the subject of the study, the probability distribution is defined for each in a certain range and type, and it is aimed at understanding the behavior of the system, not according to the optimal result. In this study, a Wind Power Plant (RES) with a 5 MW electricity generation capacity and a wind capacity factor of 35% in the province of Sinop, which is thought to have started the investment market data prepared this year, was evaluated. This RES was evaluated both with NBD, which is one of the traditional methods, and with MCS using the Crystal Ball program, and the results between the two methods were evaluated by comparing them with each other.

Anahtar Kelimeler: